Slope reliability and back analysis of failure with geotechnical parameters estimated using Bayesian inference

A Bayesian approach is proposed for the inference of the geotechnical parameters used in slope design. The methodology involves the construction of posterior probability distributions that combine prior information on the parameter values with typical data from laboratory tests and site investigations used in design. The posterior distributions are often complex, multidimensional functions whose analysis requires the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. These procedures are used to draw representative samples of the parameters investigated, providing information on their best estimate values, variability and correlations. The paper describes the methodology to define the posterior distributions of the input parameters for slope design and the use of these results for evaluation of the reliability of a slope with the first order reliability method (FORM). The reliability analysis corresponds to a forward stability analysis of the slope where the factor of safety (FS) is calculated with a surrogate model from the more likely values of the input parameters. The Bayesian model is also used to update the estimation of the input parameters based on the back analysis of slope failure. In this case, the condition FS = 1 is treated as a data point that is compared with the model prediction of FS. The analysis requires a sufficient number of observations of failure to outbalance the effect of the initial input parameters. The parameters are updated according to their uncertainty, which is determined by the amount of data supporting them. The methodology is illustrated with an example of a rock slope characterised with a Hoek-Brown rock mass strength. The example is used to highlight the advantages of using Bayesian methods for the slope reliability analysis and to show the effects of data support on the results of the updating process from back analysis of failure.     

再生骨料透水混凝土关键性能统计及预测分析

对再生骨料透水混凝土(RAPC)4项关键性能指标(抗压强度、劈拉强度、孔隙率及透水系数)进行了统计分析,发现这4项性能指标均基本服从正态分布规律;同时建立了RAPC宏观性能的统计规律与内在联系.在此基础上,基于人工神经网络方法,运用Python软件建立了基于BP神经网络的RAPC性能预测模型,并对上述关键性能指标进行了相互预测分析.结果表明:4项性能指标的模型预测值平均相对误差均在10%以内,预测精度较高,表明RAPC的透水性能与强度性能之间具有内在的反向关联关系,并具备可预测性.     

多目标性能需求的C50混凝土配合比优化设计方法

针对工程用混凝土的多目标性能(工作性能、抗裂性能、力学性能和耐久性能)需求,提出了一种客观权重赋予-灰色关联度分析的混凝土配合比优化设计新方法.采用正交试验法研究了水胶比、砂率、胶凝材料总量、矿物掺和料用量和粉煤灰-矿粉质量比等因素对C50混凝土工作性能、抗裂性能、力学性能和耐久性能的影响,利用客观权重赋予技术确定了各项性能的客观权重,实现了C50高抗裂高性能混凝土配合比的优化设计,得到了最佳配合比,并结合试验数据验证了其综合性能.结果表明:客观权重赋予-灰色关联度分析方法可实现基于多目标性能需求的C50混凝土配合比优化设计,在一定试验条件下,C50高抗裂高性能混凝土最佳配合比参数为:水胶比0.30,砂率35%,胶凝材料总量420kg/m~3,矿物掺和料用量30%,粉煤灰与矿粉质量比2∶1.经验证,该配合比的混凝土满足多目标性能需求.     

The conditional mean spectra by disaggregating the eta spectral shape indicator

Conditional spectra are a recent development in this field, which utilizes the advantages of spectral shape indicators, for example, epsilon and eta. The application of an eta indicator in conditional spectra calculations depends mainly on calculating the peak ground velocity epsilon, data about which are not readily available in the current literature. This issue has been solved by linear regression between the conventional epsilon and the peak ground velocity epsilon. However, not enough attention has been paid in the literature to the disaggregation of the eta indicator. For this reason, the disaggregation of seismic hazard based on the use of an eta indicator has been investigated in this paper, based on a simplified linear seismic source. The obtained results were compared with the available approach in the literature, which shows that this refinement has a meaningful effect on the conditional spectra specifically in the short period range. Furthermore, eta‐based conditional spectra are used at different hazard levels to select ground‐motion records. A three‐storeyed building is then analysed, and the corresponding annual probability of failure is calculated based on the full dataset as well as on the records, which were selected based on conditional spectra.     

Enhancing the seismic performance of mid‐rise wood‐frame buildings with rigid spine columns

Wood‐frame buildings (WFBs) are the most commonly used structural systems for residential applications in North America. Past researches have shown that WFBs are susceptible to soft‐story mechanisms. In this study, a simple, efficient, and economical retrofit strategy, which utilizes continuous pinned‐supported rigid spine columns (RSCs) over the height of the building, is proposed. The retrofit aims to provide uniform deformation through the height of the building to prevent soft‐story mechanisms. This retrofit strategy was applied to a six‐story WFB located in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. A three‐dimensional nonlinear finite element model of the prototype building was developed using OpenSees. A comprehensive parametric study was conducted to identify the most economical RSC design. Seismic performance of the prototype building, with and without the most economical RSC design, was assessed through extensive nonlinear time history analyses. Results showed that the proposed retrofit strategy can effectively improve the seismic behavior of WFBs to prevent soft‐story mechanisms.     

Equivalent linear model for fully self‐centering earthquake‐resisting systems

Modern rocking and stepping cores have been known as the efficient self‐centering earthquake‐resisting systems (SC‐ERSs). The current article proposes an approximate equivalent linear (EL) model for rapid estimation of the SC‐ERS displacement. An equivalent damping ratio and effective stiffness are formulated for flag‐shaped hysteresis of a fully SC‐ERS. The approximate EL model is first established using secant stiffness and Jacobsen's damping model. Nonlinear response history analyses are carried out to compare exact and approximated peak displacements. Findings reveal that EL analysis of the SC‐ERS based on Jacobsen's damping leads to underestimation of the maximum inelastic displacement. Accordingly, a new optimal damping formula is proposed using a genetic algorithm and nonlinear regression analyses. The improved EL model is validated by practical examples, and the results show acceptable accuracy in design‐level displacement estimation.     

A simplified method for instability and second‐order load effects of framed structures: Story‐based approach

Several building codes such as ANSI/AISC 360‐16 and EC3 EN 1993‐1‐1 require the use of a proper design method to consider instability and second‐order load effect problems for individual system elements and the entire structural system. Various methods are available to assess stability. All of these methods should consider P‐Δ and P‐δ effects (second‐order effects). The following calculation procedures are presented in this study: (a) a simplified method is developed for P‐Δ and P‐δ analysis in regular frames under the effect of constant axial loads to obtain story drifts and end moments; (b) this method can be applied to an entire building or any individual story, that is, story‐based design is possible; and (c) column effective length factors are obtained for individual columns. In addition, design tables are presented.     

Seismic response of self‐centering precast concrete frames with hysteretic dampers

With the rapid development of cities and the invasion of major natural disasters such as earthquakes, the resilience city as a new design concept has been paid more and more attention. As an important branch of self‐centering seismic resisting system, self‐centering concrete frame system has been studied by many scholars. These studies prove that self‐centering concrete frame structure has excellent self‐centering ability but poor energy dissipation capacity. Adhering to the working principle of self‐centering structure and considering the development concepts of building industrialization and modularization, this paper proposed a kind of self‐centering precast concrete frame with hysteretic damper (SCPCHD). In order to verify its energy dissipation capacity and seismic performance, elaborate finite element models were established and elastoplastic dynamic time history analyses were carried out. The results showed that the SCPCHD frame has a similar interstory displacement response to the reinforced concrete (RC) frame and the energy dissipation performance of its joint is obviously superior to the RC frame under rare earthquake because the SCPCHD frame has low damage characteristics and excellent damping device. In summary, this paper proves the feasibility and superiority of the SCPCHD frame, providing reliable support for further research.     

Dynamic stress analysis for fatigue damage prognosis of long-span bridges

For fatigue damage prognosis of a long-span steel bridge, the dynamic stress analysis of critical structural components of the bridge under the future dynamic vehicle loading is essential. This paper thus presents a framework of dynamic stress analysis for fatigue damage prognosis of long-span steel bridges under the future dynamic vehicle loading. The multi-scale finite element (FE) model of the bridge is first developed using shell/plate elements to simulate the critical structural components (local models) and using beam/truss elements to simulate the rest part of the bridge (global model). With the appropriate coupling of the global and local models, the multi-scale FE model can accurately capture simultaneously not only the global behavior in terms of displacement and acceleration but also the local behavior in terms of stress and strain. A vehicle traffic load model is then developed for forecasting the future vehicle loading based on the recorded weigh-in-motion (WIM) data and using the agent-based traffic flow microsimulation. The forecasted future vehicle loading is finally applied on the multi-scale model of a real long-span cable-stayed bridge for dynamic stress analysis and fatigue damage prognosis. The obtained results show that the proposed framework is effective and accurate for dynamic stress analysis and fatigue damage prognosis.     

基于系统动力学的城市轨道交通PPP项目特许期决策模型研究

城市轨道交通因其自身建设期长、造价高、不确定风险大等特点,使得其特许期的确定至关重要。通过文献阅读及前人经验对影响城市轨道交通 PPP 项目特许期因素进行识别,利用系统动力学软件,建立城市轨道交通 PPP 项目特许期模型,并对关键因素物业收入、年交通量、年运营成本和机动车数量进行敏感性分析,得到城市轨道交通 PPP 项目特许期的变动情况,确定不同影响因素对特许期的影响情况。研究结论可为城市轨道交通 PPP 项目特许期的制定提供参考。